Past decade has seen a boom in pre-construction builder homes market in the Greater Toronto Area. Many real estate investors and first-time buyers alike have profited and for some it has not been so profitable. Why is that?
Here is my take on it but, of course, there are other opinions that are equally valid.
When buying any Greater Toronto Area pre-construction home, whether a condo unit or a townhouse, as an investor, the most important question is whether the investment will be profitable. Think of it in two key ways: a) generating immediate cash flow and b) appreciating in the long term. Pre build homes often promise future value, but the true return on investment (ROI) from real estate requires a deep understanding of both the rental potential and the property’s capacity for appreciation.
So how do you evaluate if your rental property will be beneficial in the long term? Here are a few factors.
1. Cash Flow
A positive cash flow is the money left over after mortgage payments and other expenses are paid. It’s a critical element in determining whether a pre-construction condo can generate immediate income. To project this accurately, it’s essential to consider several costs.
Rent is, of course, the primary consideration, but you also have to account for expenses like mortgage payments, property taxes, insurance and condo fees at the minimum. For example, if you’re charging $2,500 per month in rent but paying $1,500 for the mortgage, $300 in condo fees, another $300 for property tax (taken monthly) and $20 for insurance your net monthly cash flow would be $380.
In the recent high mortgage rate environment, it is likely that an investor finds himself or herself with barely enough after all costs. In some situation, as with high value purchases, rent received may not even cover all the outgoings. You, as an investor, need to be prepared to shell out some money of your own monthly to cover the expenses if you wish to go ahead.
2. Appreciation in Value
Historically, GTA real estate values have risen over time, but this is not guaranteed. To assess the potential for appreciation, you’ll need to look at historical trends in the Toronto housing market. For example, if a neighbourhood has seen a steady 5% annual growth in property values over the last decade, there’s a good chance this trend may continue. To illustrate this point, consider this fact: in the 10-year period from 2013 to 2023 the prices increased roughly 12% on an average every year.
When buying a builder home, consider the risk of market downturns. If the market dips, you’ll need to determine whether you’re in a position to carry the property through negative cash flow months. For instance, if rental income drops or the property sits vacant, would you have enough reserves to cover the mortgage and other expenses without severely impacting your financial health? As you probably already know, we are currently going through this situation in the Toronto housing market.
To this point, your term goal is important to consider. If your holding is for a shorter term, say 2-3 years, then any short-term market trend will influence your investment outcome. But if you plan to keep your property for a longer term, say over 5 years, then usually any short-term fluctuations even out. This means that there is good chance that your investment will have appreciated considerably over time. From my experience, in the Greater Toronto Area, the rule of thumb is 5 years: holding a residential property for 5 years gives it a good chance to even out any down market and increase in value.
Now, you will also have to evaluate a property’s potential from these factors below. They will have a strong bearing on your decision to go ahead with the purchase.
1. Developer Reputation
One of the first aspects to evaluate is the developer’s track record. Look into the history of their projects, their completion timelines, and the quality of their work. Financial stability is also crucial. A developer with a strong financial foundation is less likely to experience delays or, worse, project cancellations.
2. Location
Location is one of the key considerations in real estate. You’ll want to evaluate the neighborhood, paying close attention to its proximity to essential amenities such as schools, parks, and transportation hubs. A desirable neighborhood boosts rental demand and ensures a steady stream of tenants. Additionally, research the area’s historical and projected appreciation potential to get a clearer picture of how much the property might be worth in the future.
3. Project Details
The appeal of individual units matters too. Examine floor plans, the layout of the unit, and features like natural light exposure, as these factors can influence rental prices. Check the amenities on offer, such as gyms, pools, and concierge services, which can make a property more attractive to renters. Also, inquire about the construction quality, including materials used and building standards.
4. Pricing and Payment Terms
Compare the pre-construction condo prices to similar properties in the area to ensure it aligns with market rates. Understand the payment schedule and deposit structure, being mindful of potential penalties for late payments. Also, factor in closing costs like property taxes, legal fees, and moving expenses to get a complete picture of the total investment. Don’t forget to consider the HST on new homes, as this can be a significant cost. However, in certain cases, you may be eligible for an HST rebate, which can help reduce your expenses.
5. Contract Terms
Ensure the property is covered by the Tarion Home Warranty, which protects new home buyers. Be sure to review the contract carefully for any cancellation provisions or penalties. Escalation clauses can also impact your investment if construction costs rise, so understanding these is key to managing your financial exposure.
6. Market Trends
Real estate markets fluctuate, so it’s important to conduct a market analysis of the local area. Research trends such as the balance of supply and demand for pre-construction properties and examine broader economic factors like interest rates, employment levels, and the general economic climate, as these will influence both rental income potential and property appreciation in the Toronto housing market.
Consult Professionals: A knowledgeable real estate agent can provide invaluable advice throughout the process and help you navigate potential pitfalls. You may even land a good bargain with the help of a realtor with pre-construction expertise. Similarly, a real estate lawyer can review the contract to ensure your interests are protected. I would also consult with a mortgage professional at this point to make sure I don’t get any surprises when time comes for closing.
How to Calculate ROI
Investors typically rely on two main methods: the cost method and the out-of-pocket method. The cost method is straightforward. It calculates ROI by dividing the investment gain by the total costs. Let’s say you buy a pre-construction condo for $100,000 and invest another $60,000 in improvements. If the property appreciates to $200,000, your gain is $40,000 (i.e., $200,000 minus $160,000). To calculate your ROI, you divide the gain by the total costs: $40,000 ÷ $160,000 = 0.25, or 25%. While this is a solid return, many investors prefer to leverage financing to maximize their ROI.
This brings us to the out-of-pocket method, which is often preferred because it can result in a higher ROI. Imagine the same scenario, but instead of paying all cash, you finance the property with a loan. You put down $20,000 and invest the same $60,000 in improvements. With the property now valued at $200,000, your equity is $100,000 (the value minus the loan). Your out-of-pocket expense was $80,000, so your ROI would be $100,000 ÷ $80,000 = 1.25, or 125%. In this case, leveraging debt has significantly increased your return.
ROI Comparison: Cost vs. Out-of-Pocket Method
Method | Initial Investment | Total Cost | Property Value | Gain | ROI |
---|
Cost Method | 100,000(Condo)+100,000(Condo)+60,000 (Improvements) = $160,000 | $160,000 | $200,000 | $40,000 | 25% |
Out-of-Pocket Method | 20,000(DownPayment)+20,000(DownPayment)+60,000 (Improvements) = $80,000 | $80,000 | $200,000 | $100,000 (Equity) | 125% |
But how do you decide what a good ROI is? A good ROI varies depending on your risk tolerance. Some investors may be satisfied with a 10% ROI, comparable to stock market returns, while others aim for higher numbers to compensate for the risks involved. Generally, many real estate investors aim for a return that matches or exceeds the long-term average return of around 10% on the S&P 500. However, it’s also important to note that pre-construction condos come with their own set of risks, such as potential delays in construction or market changes before completion.
Investors must also account for costs that could reduce their ROI. For example, selling a property involves realtor commissions, legal fees, repairs, and staging costs. If you estimated your ROI based on market value but sell for less or face hefty selling costs, your realized return could be much lower. In addition, real estate is subject to capital gains taxes, which will eat into your profits when you sell. If you hold the property for more than a year, you’ll pay long-term capital gains taxes, which are lower than ordinary income tax rates. However, if you sell within a year, your gains will be taxed as regular income, which can significantly reduce your profits.
Finally, always stress-test your investment by considering worst-case scenarios. For example, if market conditions worsen or interest rates rise sharply, would you still be able to carry the property? Investors often use stress-testing scenarios to evaluate their capacity to handle negative cash flow periods or declines in property values. A savvy investor always has a backup plan to protect their investment in challenging times. Remember, failing to plan is planning to fail!
Purchasing a pre-con home can be an exciting opportunity, whether you’re looking to live there or looking to invest, but it’s important to be aware of the complexities involved. By considering all the factors we’ve discussed and by seeking expert guidance from a real estate lawyer and agent, you’ll be in a strong position to make a smart, informed decision.
If you are looking purchase your new build condo in the GTA and need access to quality builder projects then call me at 647-834-9928 or email at [email protected]